Do skirts really get shorter when the economy booms?
The “hemline index” says hemlines rise with stock prices. It’s usually credited to an economist in 1926, who didn’t actually propose it.
The idea is appealing: in good times people feel daring and skirts get shorter, as with the flappers of the 1920s and the miniskirts of the 1960s. In bad times they get longer, as in the 1930s Depression.
The wrong economist
The theory is almost always attributed to the economist George Taylor in 1926. But Taylor’s thesis was about the growth of the hosiery industry, and didn’t propose a hemline theory. One source suggests the idea came from Paul Nystrom’s 1928 book The Economics of Fashion. Like many good stories, it seems to have gathered a more impressive origin as it was retold.
Does it work?
In 2010, two Dutch economists, van Baardwijk and Franses, compared hemline lengths since 1921 with economic data. They found something, but not the classic claim: if anything, the economy leads hemlines by about three years. Their work wasn’t peer-reviewed.
Even if there is a link, the causes are probably mixed: fabric prices, war-time rationing, new materials, designers and celebrities, and the simple fact that fashion has to keep changing to sell.
A useful takeaway: when someone shows you a neat indicator with a famous origin, check both the origin and the data. Here, neither holds up well.
Bring it up
“The famous ‘hemline index’ is usually credited to an economist in 1926, but he never proposed it.”
Follow the thread
- In contrastThe Big Mac index Two playful economic indicators: one built on purpose, one assembled from folklore.
- RelatedWhen a measure becomes a target A tidy pattern in data is not the same as a cause.
- RelatedWhy your parents’ clothes look ridiculous, and your grandparents’ look charming Another attempt to find a simple rule behind fashion.
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- RelatedPink for girls and blue for boys is younger than your grandparents Another case where fashion looks like a natural law but is shaped by shifting social habits.
- RelatedTulips are Central Asian, not Dutch Another famous story linking fashion and the economy, where the details are more debated than the legend.
